Once you accept that a result never depends on a single cause, the question becomes more practical.
The first step is to choose the right indicators before the training even starts. A provider that waits until the end of the session to decide what to measure is starting with a problem that is hard to fix. If the training is about safety, you look at the number of incidents or accidents in the months that follow. If it is about customer relations, you can track the complaint rate or customer satisfaction over the relevant period. The indicator must exist before the training; otherwise, there is nothing to compare.
The second step is to accept working with indirect data rather than waiting for perfect proof. Few organisations have the means to isolate the exact effect of a training course amid everything else happening in a company. However, a consistent set of signals, a drop in errors that coincides with the training and feedback from managers who observe a concrete change on the ground, is more than enough to demonstrate real value, especially in a Qualiopi context where the goal is to prove a serious approach, not scientific causality.
Finally, level 4 works better when it builds on what has already been measured at level 3. If you have verified that learners are applying the right actions on the job, it becomes easier to link that observation to a business result rather than starting from scratch several months after the training. The levels should not be treated as separate boxes; they build on one another.